Stock Markting >> Forex Trading >> Online Services

الثلاثاء، 28 سبتمبر 2010

Questions From Email Inbox

Thank you for inviting people to learn from your experience. I found that to be very generous. I was hoping you may be able to shed little light on just how to go about finding the right currency pairs to buy.

This is where charting software will make it self-evident for you to know what pairs are ’trending’. Technical analysis using charting software: Elliott Wave, Retracements, Fibronacci patterns, short term trending, etc. Good charting software is invaluable! Look at it as one of your ’costs of doing business’.

I have just begun learning how the FOREX works. There are so few opportunities for the lower economic class to achieve financial independence.

It took us a full year to learn to trade forex to achieve consistent profits, but well worth the time and effort. Forex trading can be the great leveler of the self-investor playing field. I and we believe that with dedication to sound, risk-management trading methods you can succeed.

I’m trying to build a financial base, but I just can’t find a door in. Is it possible for me to participate directly in the FOREX with smaller amounts - like $1000?

Beginning with $1K. is more of a challenge and more of a risk (but not impossible). $1K represents 1 lot in Forex Trading, and that is the minimum (leveraged) trade that can be made. Perhaps that $1K would be better spent on trading education?

I have participated in Forex ’Games’ and other types of online investments that claim to be investing in Foreign Currency (among other things), with returns of 50% a month and more. I actually did get paid. Opinions please?

We strongly urge you to resist any further temptation to send your money away to an investment-type pool (by this we mean do not send your money away to be under someone else’s control and in someone else’s account). It is unjustified risk, there are much better ways to begin to experience profits from forex trading. Many such online investments have totally disappeared into the Internet ethers from which they came. Typically these investments give no contact information, claiming to be ’offshore’, ’for privacy reasons’. They last a few months, their bulletin boards or email newsletters extoll their climbing numbers of ’members’ and pay-outs, then without warning their site goes off-line forever. And you never knew who they were that disappeared with your trust and your money or e-gold.

How do you forecast which currency is next in line to increase?

It is not so much that you want to know when any one currency is going up. You can make profits whether a currency is going up (buy), or down (sell). All Currencies are continually rising and falling relative to other currencies, and forex trading is in fact trading one currency relative to another. Good trading opportunities are always present when you know how to recognize them. Technical analysis using charting software, market sentiment, experience will show you which currencies to pair to trade. Forex Trading is a skill of identifying (and acting on) the probabilities.

How do you choose when to rollover or close positions?

Technical analysis using charting software that (when you learn how to identify what you are seeing) depicts resistance levels (how high it will likely rise to) or support levels (how low it will likely stop dropping at). This is helpful for determining whether to rollover the trade for a bigger forecasted profit the next day. However, a rollover does have additional clearinghouse fees attached. Quick in-and-out trades are closed intentionally with the goal of a smaller profit gain (such as a 4 pip profit).

For example, Beginners, who are learning to read their charts, can do very well closing positions at whatever point they have gained +4 pips profit. This represents a $40. profit (in this example we are trading 1 lot Euro/USD, so 1 pip equals $10.). A $40./4 pip gain is a relatively small move on the chart and may not seem impressive until you consider that If you do this successfully 4 times a day you have made $160. profit. With 4 such daily trades in a four day trading week you will have made $640. (consider also that this is even without the magic of compounding). We leave the monthly and yearly calculations to you.

What indicators do you utilize?

We have tried everything we could ever get our hands on. Over time we have selected the ones that are most consistent and well suited to our trading style. See our review of different indicator tools in Tools of the Trade. You will develop your own trading style (best times of day, favorite currency pairs, best instinctual moving-average chart pattern etc.). But experience with basic technical analysis using charting software is always the starting point. Then you add forex forecasting email subscriptions, Allan Greenspan’s body language (no kidding) etc.

Are there any real time & reliable direct (commission free) market maker entry sites online?

Yes. It is not necessary to pay a clearinghouse (also known as a market maker, or forex brokerage house) an additional ’commission’ for self-trading using their platform/services. They are usually compensated in the ’spread’ between the buy price and sell price.

How to Read a Chart & Act Effectively

Introduction

This is a guide that tells you, in simple understandable language, how to choose the right charts, read them correctly, and act effectively in the market from what you see on them. Probably most of you have taken a course or studied the use of charts in the past. This should add to that knowledge.

Recommendation

There are several good charting packages available free. Netdania is what I use.

Using charts effectively

The default number of periods on these charts is 300. This is a good starting point;

Hourly chart that’s about 12 days of data.
15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
5-minute chart it’s slightly more than 24 hours of data.

You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts" so that it’s easy to quickly switch between charts or sets of charts.

What to look at first

1. Glance at hourly chart to see the big picture. Note significant support and resistance levels within 2% of today’s opening rate.

2. Study the 15 minute chart in great detail noting the following:

Prevailing trend

Current price in relation to the 60 period simple moving average.

High and low since GMT 00:00

Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.

How to use the information gathered so far

1. Determine the big picture (for intraday trading).

Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big picture – up or down. If it’s not clear immediately then you’re in a trading range. Lets assume the trend is down.

2. Determine if the 15 minute chart confirms the downtrend indicated by big picture:

Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60 period moving average and the moving average line should be sloping down. If this is so then you have established the direction of the prevailing trend to be down.

There are always two trends – a prevailing (major) trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main trend, which lasts for a short period of time. Minor trends are clearly spotted on 5-minute charts.

3. Determine the current trend (major or minor) from the 5 minute chart:

Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping downward – major trend.

Current price on 5-minute chart is above 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping upward – minor trend.

How to trade the information gathered so far

At this point you know the following:

Direction of the prevailing trend.

Whether we are currently trading in the direction of the prevailing (major) trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major trend).

Possible trade scenarios:

1) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and we are in a minor up-trend. Strategy would be to sell when the current price on 5-minute chart falls below the 60 period moving average and the 60 period moving average line is sloping downward. Why? Because the prevailing trend is reasserting itself and the next move is likely to be down. Is there more we can do? Yes. Look for further confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had stalled for a while and the lows of the past half hour or hour are very close to the 5 minute moving average then selling just below the lows of the past half hour is a better place to enter the market then just below the moving average line.

2) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and 5-minute chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would be to wait for a minor (up trend) trend to appear and reverse before entering the market. The reason for this is that the move is too “mature” at this point and a correction is likely. Since you trade with tight stops you will be stopped out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades through today’s low and/ or low of past three days (these levels will be apparent on the 15 minute chart) further quick downward price action is likely and a short position would be correct.

3) A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down, 5-minute chart down, and just above days lows is to BUY with a tight stop below the day’s low. Your risk is limited and defined and the technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor. Confirmation would be if today’s low was a bit higher than yesterday’s low and the price action indicated a very short-term trading range (1 minute chart) just above today’s low. The thinking here is that buyers are not waiting for a break of today’s or yesterday’s low to buy cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the level.

4) Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is after a sustained significant decline when the bottoms are getting higher. Preferably these bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or forth higher bottom it is clear a bottom is in place and an up-move is coming. As in the example above your risk is limited and defined – a low lower than the last low.

5) The reverse is true in major up-trends.

Other chart ideas

There are always two trends to consider – a major trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the major trend, which generally lasts for a short period of time.

Buying above old tops and selling below old bottoms can be excellent entry levels; assuming the move is not overly mature and a nearby reaction unlikely.

When a strong up move is occurring the market should make both higher tops and higher bottoms. The reverse is true for down moves- lower bottoms and lower tops.

Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a strong move is occurring. As the reactions begin to increase that is a clear warning signal that the move is losing momentum. When the last reaction exceeds the prior reaction you can assume the trend has changed, at least temporarily.

Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an up move usually starts from the third or fourth higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a rising market; lower tops…

You will always make the most money by following the major trend although to say you will never trade against the trend means that you will miss a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The rule is: When you are trading against the trend wait until you have a definite indication of a selling or buying point near the top or bottom, where you can place a close stop loss order (risk small amount of capital). The profit target can be a short-term gain to nearby resistance or more.

Consider the normal or average daily range, average price change from open to high and average price change from open to low, in determining your intra-day price targets.

Do not overlook the fact that it requires time for a market to get ready at the bottom before it advances and for selling pressure to work it’s way through at top before a decline. Smaller loses and sideways trading are a sign the trend may be waning in a downtrend. Smaller gains and sideways trading in an up trend.

Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next phase of move will soon become clear… be ready.

Oftentimes, when an important support or resistance level is broken a quick move occurs followed by a reaction back to or slightly above support or below resistance. This is a great opportunity to play the break on the “rebound”. Your stop can be super tight. For example, EURUSD important resistance 1.0840 is broken and a quick move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to 1.0835. Buy with a 1.0820 stop. The move back down is natural and takes nothing away from the importance of the breakout. However, EURUSD should not decline significantly below the breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go below 1.0825.

After a prolonged up move when a top has been made there is usually a trading range, followed by a sharp decline. After that, a secondary reaction back near the old highs often occurs. This is because the market gets ahead of itself and a short squeeze occurs. Selling near the old top with a stop above the old top is the safest place to sell.

The third lower top is also a great place to sell.

The same is true in reverse for down moves.

Be careful not to buy near top or sell near bottom within trading ranges. Wait for breakaway (huge profit potential) or play the range.

Whether the market is very active or in a trading range, all indications are more accurate and trustworthier when the market is actively trading.

Limitations of charts

Scheduled economic announcements that are complete surprises render nearby short-term support and resistance levels meaningless because the basis (all available information) has changed significantly, requiring a price adjustment to reflect the new information. Other support and resistance levels within the normal daily trading range remain valid. For example, on Friday the unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000 jobs. That’s a huge disparity and rendered all nearby resistance levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However, resistance level 200 points or more from the day’s opening were still meaningful because they represented resistance to a big up move on a given day.

Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government officials may render all charts points on a short-term chart meaningless, depending upon the severity of what was said or implied. For example, when Treasury Secretary John Snow hinted that the U.S. had abandoned its strong U.S. dollar policy.

By Jimmy Young

Importance of Stocks in Stock Market.

November 7, 2009

Stock market is an important part of the economy of a country. The stock market plays a play a pivotal role in the growth of the industry and commerce of the country that eventually affects the economy of the country to a great extent. That is reason that the government, industry and even the central banks of the country keep a close watch on the happenings of the stock market. The stock market is important from both the industry’s point of view as well as the investor’s point of view.

A stock is a small share that represents a partial ownership of a company. Stocks are issued by companies in order to raise capitals and are bought by investors in order to acquire a portion of the company. Even a small share of the company will give the investors the right to have a say in how the company is run. Although they gain a portion of the company’s profits, investors do not carry an obligation to the company in cases of defaults or lawsuits.

Whenever a company wants to raise funds for further expansion or settling up a new business venture, they have to either take a loan from a financial organization or they have to issue shares through the stock market. In fact the stock market is the primary source for any company to raise funds for business expansions. If a company wants to raise some capital for the business it can issue shares of the company that is basically part ownership of the company. To issue shares for the investors to invest in the stocks a company needs to get listed to a stocks exchange and through the primary market of the stock exchange they can issue the shares and get the funds for business requirements. There are certain rules and regulations for getting listed at a stock exchange and they need to fulfill some criteria to issue stocks and go public. The stock market is primarily the place where these companies get listed to issue the shares and raise the fund. In case of an already listed public company, they issue more shares to the market for collecting more funds for business expansion. For the companies which are going public for the first time, they need to start with the Initial Public Offering or the IPO. In both the cases these companies have to go through the stock market.

Only those companies which are listed on public exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (NASDAQ) are capable of stock trading. The shares from the companies listed on public exchanges can be bought and sold on the open market. Buying a partial ownership in smaller companies that are not listed on a stock exchange is also possible but that is a very different type of investment.

An individual investor hires a broker to make transactions for him. A broker takes specific orders from the investor regarding the buying or the selling of stocks. These orders may include some specific instructions to trade at a price that the market will bear or at a price that the investor will prefer. The broker then tries to execute the investor’s orders by searching for either a buyer or a seller. The broker receives a commission on the sale.

Stocks have a lot of advantages over savings investments because they represent ownerships in a particular company. This gives the investor a certain right to participate in making decisions for the company. Some important company matters require voting and one stock is equivalent to a single vote. Partial company ownership also allows the stockholders to benefit from the company’s profits which are distributed in the form of dividends. These may be issued one or twice a year at the discretion of the company directors.

A prospering company causes the value of the stocks and the profits to increase while a suffering company causes the value of the stocks and the profits to decrease. Stocks, when compared with savings investments, both carry a higher risk of losing money and a higher potential of earning money. A good knowledge of the different stock markets and the various investment strategies can help investors to minimize their losses.

What is market capitalization

November 15, 2009

Big caps. Mid-caps. Small caps. Market capitalization. You've heard these terms tossed about by the media and at cocktail parties.

As an investor, here is what you need to know about them:

First market cap refers to the value or capitalization the market puts on a company. It's nothing more than another way of saying what the market value of a company's outstanding shares is worth at any given time. It is calculated by multiplying the price of the stock by the number of stocks issued.

Second, if you want to calculate a company's market capitalization, take the number of outstanding shares and multiply it by the stock's price. A company's outstanding shares (also known as issued shares) are the number of shares held by the general public as well as by the officers of the corporation.

For example if the stock of company XYZ is selling for 25 US dollars (USD) and there are 1,000,000 stock shares issued by XYZ, then the market cap for XYZ is 25,000,000 USD. Since the stock price typically varies from day to day, the market cap for a particular company also varies from day to day.

Third, there are no exact definitions for what constitutes big-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks. The definitions change over time and vary from one brokerage house to another. Nonetheless, there is a rough-and-ready consensus as to how to differentiate them:

1. Large Caps: A large cap is generally regarded as having a market capitalization of more than $10 billion dollars.

2. Mid-Caps: A mid-cap stock has a capitalization that is less than that of a large cap but greater than that of a small cap.

3. Small Caps: A small cap is typically defined as a company capitalized with less than $2 billion but more than $250 million. Companies with capitalizations under $250 million are called micro caps.

What is the Treynor Index in stock market

November 28, 2009

A measure of a portfolio's excess return per unit of risk, equal to the portfolio's rate of return minus the risk-free rate of return, divided by the portfolio's beta. This is a similar ratio to the Sharpe ratio, except that the portfolio's beta is considered the measure of risk as opposed to the variance of portfolio returns. This is useful for assessing the excess return from each unit of systematic risk, enabling investors to evaluate how structuring the portfolio to different levels of systematic risk will affect returns.

The Treynor index offers a more nuanced analysis of an investment’s success over simply looking at the bottom-line financial returns on a stock. Prior to the Treynor index, stock market investors had known how to measure risk and compare returns, but it wasn’t until the advent of the Treynor index, and latterly the Sharpe and Jensen ratios, that investors were able to discern the correlations between risk and returns on their investments clearly.

The Treynor index works on the notion of risk posited by Treynor in his understanding of the two-sided nature of market risk. These two elements of risk are integral to the Treynor Index and comprise the risk arising from the fluctuations of individual securities and the risk produced by fluctuations in the market.

A stock investment yield calculated according to the Treynor index assumes that the portfolio of the investor is suitably diversified, as it only takes into consideration systematic risk. Unsystematic risk is not accounted for and therefore the results of a Treynor Index calculation for an undiversified portfolio are misleading.

As an example of the Treynor Index in operation; if we say that the ten year annual return of the S&P 500 index is 10% and over the same period the average annual return on risk-less Treasury bills is 5%, then we have a scenario where the relative risks and yields of three stock portfolios over the predictable Treasury bills can be calculated and compared:

Portfolio A 10% Beta, 0.90 Portfolio B 14% Beta, 1.03 Portfolio C 15% Beta 1.20

The Treynor Index for the market calculates as (0.10-0.05)/1.00 = 0.050. For the three respective stock portfolios we have Treynor indices of:

T(manager A) = (0.10-0.05)/0.90 = 0.056 T(manager B) = (0.14-0.05)/1.03 = 0.087 T(manager C) = (0.15-0.05)/1.20 = 0.083

Day Trading Indicators and Indicator Trading

Did You Begin Day Trading As An Indicator Only Trader?

Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program - probably a free one that you found online - in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ’predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ’best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program - let the games begin.

Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ’best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ’magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ’predict’ price - it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.

So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading - this must be the ’best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ’best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal - just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.

My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital - isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ’trend follower’ instead of a ’top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ’extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months - ahhh the memories ƒº

Learning To Day Trading - The Learning Progression

Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.

This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?

Now what - you never learn how to trade.

I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.

Now what - learning but losing - I stopped trading. Learning to trading using real money, and ’scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing - this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ’good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?

Now what - not trading and not ready [quite] to quit - still studying and searching.

Probably the single most important ’thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals - in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.

Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions - WHAT about the relevant ’things’ that are ’moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ’thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.

When I think about the steps in my learning progression - I would list them as follows:

2/95 - 6/96 indicators only teaching service that included signals learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues stop trading

6/96 - 3/97 understanding of trading psychology issues learning about trading setups concept trading method -vs- trading system trade setup - trade trigger are not the same method development understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ’across’ the chart related trading setups and how/when they triggered indicators + pattern indicators + pattern + price indicators + pattern + price + market conditions

3/97 - 11/97 able to paper trade profitably able to real money trade profitably able to trade for a living

Indicator Only Day Trader - Setup Including Indicators Method Day Trader

I have attempted to discuss the way I started day trading, and the way I think many-most traders typically begin. Along with this, I have pointed various issues and problems that I had - those regarding how to learn to trade, and then progressing into a profitable trader. My experiences have been both personal, as well as those of many traders that I have worked with over the last 8-9 years through Tactical Trading - that a very large number of these problems are due to day trading only with indicators, the specific indicators used, along with trying to turn these indicators into a mechanical trading system. This is not to say that this can’t be done - I simply couldn’t do it. However, I would strongly suggest that anyone who is in the early stages of day trading, or struggling with their day trading, consider these things that have been discussed.

This discussion, along with chart examples of various trading indicators and trade setups, is continued at
http://www.tacticaltradingmethod.com/indicator-trading.html
Copyright © 2006 Tactical Trading, LLC. All rights reserved.
Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

Forex Trading Systems

You should build your own trading system

A trading system on the Forex market is a type of strategy that allows traders to trade with a set of rules. There are many free trading systems and strategies printed in trading articles, journals, books and on trading-related websites. I would have to say that if you are not inclined to learn how to develop your own trading methodology, then perhaps you should consider giving your money for someone else to invest. Give it to someone who is trading a system that he developed and tested himself because he is more likely to have the confidence and courage to follow his own trading system.

Why you need a forex trading system?

It’s easy to trade with a system.
A good system provides consistent result.

What makes a good trading system?

It’s simple. Forget complicated systems with lots of rules - it’s a proven fact that simple systems work better - and are less likely to fail, in the brutal world of trading.
A trading system with profitable expectation.
It provides good ratio of reward/risk.
A system of comprehensive risk management including market exposure weightings, stop-loss provisions and capital commitment guidelines that preserve capital during trend-less or volatile periods.

Once you learn how to develop trading systems and strategies, you can then be better equipped to test them as well. By this point you might even find that the system created by yourself is the best one for you, because it becomes the system more suited to your profit objectives while operating within your risk tolerance levels. It is likely that once you develops this level of competence, you will simply acquire other trading systems only to dissect them, grab the parts you likes and add them to your own system. To me, the irony is that for a trader to know which system to purchase, you must first learn how to create a system. And after knowing how to create a system, he will no longer have the need to buy one.